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General situation and outlook
Economic growth continued to increase in Q1 and Q2 of 2010, by 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, driven in large part by private consumption and a surge in industrial production, which increased 10% in the first half of the year, with robust growth recorded in the computer, paper, automotive and chemical sectors. Exports have increased again since January, helped by a depreciation of the Zloty against the Euro.
The situation in most industries is now much better than in 2009. Companies that managed to weather the worst of the economic crisis in the second half of 2008 and first half of 2009 now show improvements in their results and payment morale.
Overall, we expect corporate insolvencies to rise further this year in the wake of acute downturns in many sectors. However, the increase will slow down in the coming months, thanks to demand, investment and improved business performance.
After a 3.0% GDP growth this year, we expect an increase to 3.4% in 2011, based on flourishing export markets (mainly Germany), ongoing consumer demand and recovering business sector investments. Poland’s external economic situation will remain quite robust, with no liquidity and solvency problems likely.
Real GDP growth (%)
Source: EIU / IMF
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
Source: EIU / IMF
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General Information
Capital: Warsaw
Government type: Parliamentary Republic
Currency: Zloty (PLN)
Population: 38.2 million
Status: Upper middle income country
(GDP/capita: US$11,803 in 2010)
Main import sources (2009)
- Germany: 22.4%
- China: 9.3%
- Russia: 8.7%
- Italy: 6.7%
Main export markets (2009)
- Germany: 26.1%
- Italy: 6.9%
- France: 6.8%
- UK: 6.4%
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Date: October 2010
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